Masayoshi Son forecasts a $5 trillion annual AI bill — methodology for 2040 estimate undisclosed
TL;DR
Masayoshi Son forecasts $5tn in annual AI investment by 2040 without publishing his methodology.
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son forecast that global AI investment will need to reach $5 trillion, or about 800 trillion yen, a year by 2040. Speaking at SoftBank World 2026 in Tokyo on July 14, he called the AI-bubble question foolish and compared criticism of AI to “spitting upward.”
Son also forecast that AI-related industries will account for about 20% of global GDP by 2040 and said $5 trillion in annual spending would be small relative to that output. Reuters reported that he did not explain how he calculated either figure. He listed data centers, semiconductor capacity, energy systems and other infrastructure as areas requiring investment.
Son forecast that AI data centers will require 3 TW of power-generation capacity by 2040, equivalent to 1.8 times current global electricity consumption. He said natural gas would initially supply much of that power before a shift to nuclear fusion. He also predicted 100 trillion AI agents making decisions and communicating with one another.
SoftBank has invested tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI, data centers and robotics companies. Reuters reported that its cumulative OpenAI investment is expected to exceed $60 billion by the end of 2026. The group reported nearly 5 trillion yen in profit for the year through March 2026, about five times the prior year. The $5 trillion figure is Son's forecast for annual global demand in 2040, not a SoftBank commitment.
via Reuters / Fortune / AP
Son also forecast that AI-related industries will account for about 20% of global GDP by 2040 and said $5 trillion in annual spending would be small relative to that output. Reuters reported that he did not explain how he calculated either figure. He listed data centers, semiconductor capacity, energy systems and other infrastructure as areas requiring investment.
Son forecast that AI data centers will require 3 TW of power-generation capacity by 2040, equivalent to 1.8 times current global electricity consumption. He said natural gas would initially supply much of that power before a shift to nuclear fusion. He also predicted 100 trillion AI agents making decisions and communicating with one another.
SoftBank has invested tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI, data centers and robotics companies. Reuters reported that its cumulative OpenAI investment is expected to exceed $60 billion by the end of 2026. The group reported nearly 5 trillion yen in profit for the year through March 2026, about five times the prior year. The $5 trillion figure is Son's forecast for annual global demand in 2040, not a SoftBank commitment.
via Reuters / Fortune / AP
