Xbox shipment forecast falls to 2.5 million — Kagan sees global home consoles down 19.5%
TL;DR
Kagan forecasts 2026 home-console shipments down 19.5% to 33.9M, with Xbox falling from 3.2M to 2.5M.
Xbox annual shipments are forecast to fall to 2.5 million, after the first sub-500,000 quarter in Kagan's dataset arrived in Q1 2026. GamesIndustry.biz cited a July forecast from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan putting 2026 worldwide home-console shipments at 33.9 million, down 19.5%.
Kagan estimates Microsoft Xbox Series shipments decline from 3.2 million in 2025 to 2.5 million in 2026, down 21.9%. Sony PS5 shipments fall from 17.1 million to 13.2 million, down 22.8%. The figures measure manufacturer shipments, not consumer purchases or sell-through.
The report attributes the overall market decline to the RAM (DRAM) and storage component crisis and console price increases. For Xbox, analyst Neil Barbour also cited an uneven first-party software library, a subscription-first strategy that did not materially lift hardware sales, and an Xbox Series X price $100 above a standard PS5.
The underlying Kagan report has no public link, so the forecasts above are attributed through GamesIndustry.biz. Xbox shipped 3.2 million units in 2025; Q1 2026 was the first quarter below 500,000 in Kagan's dataset.
via GamesIndustry.biz / ChannelNews / GameSpot
Kagan estimates Microsoft Xbox Series shipments decline from 3.2 million in 2025 to 2.5 million in 2026, down 21.9%. Sony PS5 shipments fall from 17.1 million to 13.2 million, down 22.8%. The figures measure manufacturer shipments, not consumer purchases or sell-through.
The report attributes the overall market decline to the RAM (DRAM) and storage component crisis and console price increases. For Xbox, analyst Neil Barbour also cited an uneven first-party software library, a subscription-first strategy that did not materially lift hardware sales, and an Xbox Series X price $100 above a standard PS5.
The underlying Kagan report has no public link, so the forecasts above are attributed through GamesIndustry.biz. Xbox shipped 3.2 million units in 2025; Q1 2026 was the first quarter below 500,000 in Kagan's dataset.
via GamesIndustry.biz / ChannelNews / GameSpot
