Xiaomi raises 2026 shipment target to 110M | first reversal after two cuts, betting memory has peaked
TL;DR
Xiaomi has raised its 2026 smartphone shipment target from about 90 million to 110 million units, a ~16% increase — the first upward revision after two cuts. Growth comes mostly from low-end models. Xiaomi bets the memory chip price cycle has peaked.
Xiaomi has raised its 2026 full-year smartphone shipment target from about 90 million to 110 million units — Jiemian News reported on July 21 from supply chain sources, a ~16% increase. It's the first upward revision after two prior cuts — Xiaomi has already cut targets twice this year amid rising upstream memory chip prices.
The added units come mostly from low-end models — the most memory-cost-sensitive segment, and the first to get cut earlier. A person familiar said Xiaomi's internal logic is that the memory chip market is nearing a turning point.
The stronger signal is the demand ceiling. Memory downstream buyers are no longer willing to pay for continuously rising memory costs — when demand-side tolerance hits the ceiling, upward price momentum bends. That's the turning point Xiaomi is betting on.
2026 is a globally tight year for DRAM / NAND — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have tilted capacity to HBM, leaving consumer memory repeatedly hiking. Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo all cut their targets in H1; Xiaomi even halved from 170M to 95M at one point. This 110M target is the third revision — and being upward is the divide, suggesting Xiaomi thinks the memory cycle may have peaked.
Win the bet, memory falls, low-end shipments recover, 110M is in reach. Lose it, expect a fourth revision in Q4.
via Jiemian News / Gizchina
The added units come mostly from low-end models — the most memory-cost-sensitive segment, and the first to get cut earlier. A person familiar said Xiaomi's internal logic is that the memory chip market is nearing a turning point.
The stronger signal is the demand ceiling. Memory downstream buyers are no longer willing to pay for continuously rising memory costs — when demand-side tolerance hits the ceiling, upward price momentum bends. That's the turning point Xiaomi is betting on.
2026 is a globally tight year for DRAM / NAND — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have tilted capacity to HBM, leaving consumer memory repeatedly hiking. Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo all cut their targets in H1; Xiaomi even halved from 170M to 95M at one point. This 110M target is the third revision — and being upward is the divide, suggesting Xiaomi thinks the memory cycle may have peaked.
Win the bet, memory falls, low-end shipments recover, 110M is in reach. Lose it, expect a fourth revision in Q4.
via Jiemian News / Gizchina