BNEF: US Data Centres to Hit 20% of National Power by 2035｜83% Jump From December Forecast in Seven Months
TL;DR
BNEF: US data centres will consume 20% of national electricity by 2035, an 83% jump from December's forecast, as AI bets directly on the grid.
BloombergNEF reported on July 22 — US data centres will consume ~20% of national electricity by 2035, up from today's 5.9%. 2030 estimate is 12%, 2035 is 20% — a jump from 1/8 to 1/5 in five years.
Absolute demand — US data centre power demand will hit 194 GW by 2035. BNEF flags — this is 83% higher than the same firm's December forecast. Same firm's estimate nearly doubled in seven months — meaning power demand growth outpaces model predictability.
Geographic concentration — Virginia and Texas have the highest data centre density, with power share running even higher there. Virginia's Data Center Alley holds 25%+ of US data centres, and the local grid is near rolling brownouts.
Driver — AI-driven demand explosion. BNEF folded next-decade AI facility project pipelines into the new forecast — the main reason for the 83% jump.
Grid stress is already breaking — the report states directly that "surging demand from AI data centres has overwhelmed the grid; after two decades of stagnant load growth, the grid is racing to supply enough energy". US total electricity use was roughly flat for 20 years; utilities didn't plan for expansion — now AI is forcing catch-up.
Concrete cases — Amazon, Google, Microsoft signed massive long-term nuclear PPAs in the last 18 months (Three Mile Island restart, SMR procurement), Meta is building 4 GW-class data centres, xAI Colossus has scaled to 200,000 H100s. All need GW-level power.
China's Zhipu just built a 1 GW AI data centre (see #365) — the US-China AI power arms race has shifted from "who has chips" to "who has electricity".
via Bloomberg NEF
Absolute demand — US data centre power demand will hit 194 GW by 2035. BNEF flags — this is 83% higher than the same firm's December forecast. Same firm's estimate nearly doubled in seven months — meaning power demand growth outpaces model predictability.
Geographic concentration — Virginia and Texas have the highest data centre density, with power share running even higher there. Virginia's Data Center Alley holds 25%+ of US data centres, and the local grid is near rolling brownouts.
Driver — AI-driven demand explosion. BNEF folded next-decade AI facility project pipelines into the new forecast — the main reason for the 83% jump.
Grid stress is already breaking — the report states directly that "surging demand from AI data centres has overwhelmed the grid; after two decades of stagnant load growth, the grid is racing to supply enough energy". US total electricity use was roughly flat for 20 years; utilities didn't plan for expansion — now AI is forcing catch-up.
Concrete cases — Amazon, Google, Microsoft signed massive long-term nuclear PPAs in the last 18 months (Three Mile Island restart, SMR procurement), Meta is building 4 GW-class data centres, xAI Colossus has scaled to 200,000 H100s. All need GW-level power.
China's Zhipu just built a 1 GW AI data centre (see #365) — the US-China AI power arms race has shifted from "who has chips" to "who has electricity".
via Bloomberg NEF
