Trump Threatens to "Hit Very Hard" at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain｜Israel Says Thousands of Centrifuges Moved Underground
TL;DR
Trump threatens to "hit the region very hard" against Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site; Israeli intel says thousands of centrifuges were moved into deep tunnels last autumn.
Trump on July 21 told reporters he has noted the reports about centrifuges being moved, and the US will "very hard hit that region very soon". Wall Street Journal first.
The Israeli intelligence — Iran moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into deep mountain tunnels in autumn 2025. Israel has handed the intel to the US.
The backstory is June 2025 — a 12-day joint US-Israel air campaign heavily damaged Iran's three main nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan). Israeli intel says — the centrifuges were subsequently moved to Pickaxe Mountain base in the autumn, located northeast of Natanz in deep mountain underground, believed to be deeper and harder-to-hit than Fordow.
Trump's words — "We're tracking where these materials went. That's where the action is going to be focused. We'll likely strike that area very soon." First public warning of a new strike round since the June ceasefire.
Military difficulty — Pickaxe Mountain's underground depth is estimated at 80-100+ metres, potentially beyond even the GBU-57 massive bunker buster (design depth 60m). The June 2025 Fordow strike used two stacked GBU-57s for penetration; damage assessment is still contested. If Pickaxe is deeper, single strikes may not work.
Tehran's stance — Iran denies the centrifuge move and insists all nuclear activity remains within IAEA compliance. IAEA lost routine inspection access after June; on-site intelligence is dark.
Supreme Leader Khamenei's post-ceasefire speeches — "the nuclear work will not stop, only go deeper" — read by outsiders as rhetoric, but Israeli intel treats as literal.
Oil futures rose 2.3% pre-market on July 22, with Brent at $78.4. The market has priced in a new round of Middle East military risk.
via Wall Street Journal
The Israeli intelligence — Iran moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into deep mountain tunnels in autumn 2025. Israel has handed the intel to the US.
The backstory is June 2025 — a 12-day joint US-Israel air campaign heavily damaged Iran's three main nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan). Israeli intel says — the centrifuges were subsequently moved to Pickaxe Mountain base in the autumn, located northeast of Natanz in deep mountain underground, believed to be deeper and harder-to-hit than Fordow.
Trump's words — "We're tracking where these materials went. That's where the action is going to be focused. We'll likely strike that area very soon." First public warning of a new strike round since the June ceasefire.
Military difficulty — Pickaxe Mountain's underground depth is estimated at 80-100+ metres, potentially beyond even the GBU-57 massive bunker buster (design depth 60m). The June 2025 Fordow strike used two stacked GBU-57s for penetration; damage assessment is still contested. If Pickaxe is deeper, single strikes may not work.
Tehran's stance — Iran denies the centrifuge move and insists all nuclear activity remains within IAEA compliance. IAEA lost routine inspection access after June; on-site intelligence is dark.
Supreme Leader Khamenei's post-ceasefire speeches — "the nuclear work will not stop, only go deeper" — read by outsiders as rhetoric, but Israeli intel treats as literal.
Oil futures rose 2.3% pre-market on July 22, with Brent at $78.4. The market has priced in a new round of Middle East military risk.
via Wall Street Journal