Goldman: China Household Assets to Grow Just 5% Post-2025 | Property Share Drops 67%→52%, Financial Assets Rise
TL;DR
Goldman projects China household asset growth to slow to 5% post-2025, from 25% three decades ago; real estate share fell 67%→52%.
Goldman Sachs' latest outlook traces a steady halving of Chinese household total-asset growth every decade. 1992-2002: 25% CAGR, doubling roughly every 3 years. 2002-2012: 20%, doubling every ~4. 2012-2022: 10%. Post-2025, Goldman projects it drops further to ~5%.
Asset mix is shifting too. At the 2021 property peak, real estate was 67% of household assets, cash 16%, financial assets 15%. By Q1 2026, real estate is 52% and financial assets are 20%. The curve tracks money leaving housing for stocks and wealth products — some of the 163T yuan in household savings is hunting yield beyond deposit rates.
Goldman also raised its 2026 China GDP forecast from 4.3% to 4.8%, but flagged that private consumption won't return to the past decade's pace — leaving growth elasticity to government spending and exports.
via Gelonghui / Goldman Sachs
Asset mix is shifting too. At the 2021 property peak, real estate was 67% of household assets, cash 16%, financial assets 15%. By Q1 2026, real estate is 52% and financial assets are 20%. The curve tracks money leaving housing for stocks and wealth products — some of the 163T yuan in household savings is hunting yield beyond deposit rates.
Goldman also raised its 2026 China GDP forecast from 4.3% to 4.8%, but flagged that private consumption won't return to the past decade's pace — leaving growth elasticity to government spending and exports.
via Gelonghui / Goldman Sachs
